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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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