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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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