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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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