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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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