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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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