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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS DOWN 21 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2014 - EIA
Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (M ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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