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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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