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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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