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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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