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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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