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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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