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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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