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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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