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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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