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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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