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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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