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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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