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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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