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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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