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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
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