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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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