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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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