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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
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