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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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