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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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