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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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