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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 January 16
LNG BUNKERING IN ASIA: FUELING A PROMISING FUTURE? - REED SMITH
The requirement of a mandatory reduction of sulphur content in bunker fuel proposed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) poses a challe ...
Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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