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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk m ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
IRON ORE IMPASSE - A FAILED CLAIM FOR CONVERSION - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent case of the “Bao Yue”, the English High Court found that the bill of lading holder was liable t ...
Tuesday, 12 January 16
5700 GAR COAL FOR DELIVERY WITHIN Q1 FELL 0.91% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin moved South direction week over week to averaging $39.96 per ton on last Friday, acc ...
Monday, 11 January 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 20% MORE COAL IN DECEMBER 2015; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINE 3.43%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.129 billio ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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