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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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