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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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