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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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