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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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