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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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