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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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