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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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