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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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