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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 0.98 per MT (-2.20%) month over month to US$ 43.65 per mt. The swap ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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