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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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