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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 July 15
INDONESIA DELAYS PLAN TO RAISE COAL ROYALTIES AMID PLUNGING PRICE - JP
The government will postpone a plan to increase royalty payments from coal miners as they are already burdened with the commodity’s plunging ...
Tuesday, 28 July 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP LOST M-M AND GAINED W-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.15 per MT (-2.51%) month over month to US$ 44.62 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 27 July 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 545,000 MT OF COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase total 545,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal ...
Monday, 27 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WEAK M/M; FIRM W/W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.92 (1.77%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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