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Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
 Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the freight market are hardly a surprise anymore, the bottom of each cycle will always find some market participants better prepared than others, having made provisions for the difficult days that follow a period of healthy rates.
The fall in rates naturally succeeds a good period in the market that is characterized by increased freight rates and high asset values. When this fall is combined with low demolition activity and overwhelming deliveries, oversupply of tonnage is the natural consequence. Many owners believe that the bottom of each cycle offers the market a chance to find its balance, while at the same time it also presents buying opportunities that owners can capitalize on once the rebound in rates finally comes.
If we focus on what has been happening during the last three quarters of the year and how the freight market has moved from very low to healthier levels, it is evident that despite the fact that demand cannot be predicted and safely placed into the trade equation, increased demolition and decelerating order books are definitely pushing towards the right direction.
Looking at the year to date period, an interesting point is that buying interest expressed by some owners that usually focus their activity on wet tonnage, has now oriented towards second hand Dry Bulk vessels. The attractive secondhand values over at the Dry Bulk market seem to have convinced non-traditional Dry Bulk owners to invest in the sector, with modern units that are currently priced well below the respective new building assets, luring most of the market interest.
In the first quarter of the year we only saw a small number of second-hand transactions concluding when compared to the number of inspections performed, while as we headed towards the second quarter, the number of buyers in the second hand dry bulk market increased impressively despite the fact that the BDI had hardly moved.
Having as a starting point the sale of the “PRABHU MOHINI” (82,000dwt, ‘11 blt 2011, S. Korea) at low $17.0m back in the beginning of April up to the sale of the “PINCHAT (81,290dwt, ‘12 blt, S. Korea) at $21.5m a couple of weeks ago, we see a gradual improvement in asset values that has not been affected by the ups and downs of the BDI during the second half of the summer season.
Is therefore now the time for an owner who is determined and can support the acquisition of a vessel for a few years to invest in the second-hand market? With the last done for a Japanese Supramax blt ‘08 at $10.8m and the last done for a Japanese Handysize blt ‘11 at $10.0m, the argument for acquisitions is definitely strong.
Predicting the bottom or the top of the cycle is fairly impossible. Back in 2005 owners who acquired second-hand tonnage had to watch rates fall for more than a year most probably thinking; ”Game Over”. Yet a bit later on and for the next two years, their uncertainty was replaced by the feeling of absolute success and the rest is history. We are not suggesting that asset values could over-perform in the same way they did back then..but saying this, is anyone convinced that there is no significant upside to current levels?
By Giannis Andritsopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, w ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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