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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD c ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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