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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 21 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-O-W; DECLINED M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week and declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 1.75 ( ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP MOVE UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased slightly month over month.
The Q2 swap has increased US$ 0.2 ...
Monday, 20 April 15
BUKIT ASAM TAKES OVER STAKE IN JV FROM RAJAWALI - JP
State-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced Friday that it had taken over almost the entire stake in a joint venture (JV) that it created ...
Monday, 20 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.54 per MT (-7.21%) month over month and gained US$ 0.30 week ...
Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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