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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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