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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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