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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED MOM AND WOW
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.46 (-0.90%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.28 (0. ...
Monday, 11 May 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 140K MT OF 4600 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender to buy total 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of Sub-bitumi ...
Sunday, 10 May 15
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to soft week over week except for the Cape Index which was up 7.32%. Cape index was closed at 616 p ...
Friday, 08 May 15
BUSIEST CAPESIZE DEMOLITION MARKET EVER - BIMCO
The activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 when looking at dry bulk tonnage.
The dry bulk market has long suffered f ...
Friday, 08 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S. UP 3.2% THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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