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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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