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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
BUKIT ASAM'S AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE WAS UNDER PRESSURE DURING Q1
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s state owned coal producer saw their profits fall in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period last ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
IRON ORE PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON LOW DEMAND, HIGH OUTPUT - FITCH
Iron ore prices will stay low for several years due to increasing supply, weak demand growth in China and the slower-than-expected closure of high- ...
Tuesday, 19 May 15
KOMIPO IS SEEKING TOTAL 2.34 MMT OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR 2015 - 2017
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 2.34 million Metric Tons (MT) of HCV ...
Monday, 18 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SCORE MONTHLY GAINS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.87 per MT (1.99%) month over month and lost US$ 0.03 week on w ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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