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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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