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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 15
SOUTH KOREAN STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 780K MT OF COAL FOR H2' 15
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 780K Metric Tons (MT) of HCV and LCV ...
Thursday, 28 May 15
TIMEBAR FOR DEMURRAGE CLAIMS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
English law has traditionally had a strict approach to contractually agreed time bars between commercial parties as well ...
Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the fallin ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
HOW HAS THE DROP IN OIL PRICES AFFECTED OTHER COMMODITIES? - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The effects of the dramatic drop in the price of both Ice March Brent, the international oil marker, and its US counterpa ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
MINING ASSOCIATION PERHAPI PUSHES FOR 35,000 MEGAWATT ELECTRICITY PROGRAM - JG
The Indonesian Mining Professionals Association, or Perhapi, has announced its support for a 35,000-megawatt national electricity program, saying i ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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