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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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