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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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